NFL playoffs: Houston Texans @ New England Patriots - live!

Good afternoon from an unseasonably warm Somerville MA where everyone has been waiting for this afternoon's game between the Houston Texans and New England Patriots for what seems like a small eternity. I want to start things off by saying that, despite what you may have heard, not everyone here in New England thinks today's divisional game against the Texans will be a be a romp, blowout, massacre or cupcake.

Yes, the last time the Patriots faced the Texans, New England defeated and demoralized Houston to the tune of 42-14 back in December, but everyone here remembers what happened last time the Patriots came off a first round playoff bye to face a team they had crushed during the regular season. In 2010, the Patriots humiliated the New York Jets 45-3. When they met up again in the playoffs several weeks later, the extra-motivated Jets defeated the Patriots, at home at Gillette Stadium, 28-21. No one in New England has forgotten this, especially not head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady.

So pay no attention to certain curly-haired professional trolls in the Boston media, neither the Patriots or the majority of their fans, are taking this game for granted. That's not to say that the Patriots aren't the superior team on paper. Matt Schaub is a good quarterback, but Tom Brady is quietly coming off one of this best seasons, the much-maligned Patriots defense has improved over the course of the season and Rob Gronkowski, the tight end who might be Brady's biggest offensive weapon, will be playing this time around. The Texans limped into the playoffs and struggled to defeat a mediocre Cincinnati Bengals team during the Wild Card round.

How can the Texans pull off the upset? First, Schaub is going to have to take care of the ball, a good rule of thumb in general but especially when facing New England's opportunistic defense that is skilled at converting turnovers into points. When the Patriots have lost in the playoffs, it's been when they've failed to make interceptions or recover fumbles (it feels like they missed out on converting dozens of fumbles during their Super Bowl loss to the New York Giants last year). Defensive end J.J. Watt, possibly the best defensive player in the NFL this season, is going to have to be way more of a disruptive presence than he was last game. Maybe most importantly, the Texans need a huge game from running back Arian Foster, which means not falling behind early. The Texans can not afford to get into a shootout with this Patriots offense.

Okay, so basically my analysis here boils down to "the Houston Texans can win if their key players play really well", but sometimes it's that simple.

So, the Texans could pull off an upset, but will they? I wouldn't bet against it, especially after yesterday's game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Denver Broncos. This time yesterday everyone was penciling in Peyton Manning to easily lead the Broncos to the AFC Championship Game, quite possibly to face longtime rival Tom Brady. Instead, Manning was outplayed by the Baltimore Ravens' Joe Flacco and then turned into late-period Brett Favre by throwing what amounted to a season-ending interception during overtime. So, somewhat improbably, the winner of this afternoon's game will face the Baltimore Ravens for the right to make a trip for the Super Bowl.?

We want to hear from you throughout the game! We'll use your thoughts, questions, comments and jokes, just email us at hunter.felt.freelance@guardiannews.com or tweet @HunterFelt. It's the Houston Texans at Gillette Stadium facing the New England Patriots. Opening kickoff is scheduled around 4:30pm EST, if there's no double overtime for Seahawks/Falcons. I'll be back in a few minutes with predictions, thoughts and random Gronk quotes.

Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/jan/13/playoffs-divisional-weekend-texans-patriots-live

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